---
title: "Scenario analysis"
source: "https://systems-analysis.info/eng/Scenario_analysis"
wiki: "systems-analysis.info/eng"
article: "Scenario_analysis"
language: "en"
categories:
  - "Category:Decision theory"
  - "Category:English"
  - "Category:Science"
revision_id: 338
wiki_created_at: 2026-09-06T22:22:18Z
wiki_modified_at: 2026-09-06T22:22:18Z
downloaded_at: 2026-09-07T22:22:48Z
---

# Scenario analysis

**Scenario analysis** is a method for foreseeing and evaluating possible future outcomes under conditions of uncertainty, used to improve the rationale behind decisions. It is based on constructing a set of alternative scenarios that reflect various hypothetical environmental states and decision outcomes, with the goal of identifying robust and effective strategies.

Within decision theory, the scenario approach is used as a means for:

- overcoming uncertainty and information deficits,
- structuring complex problem situations,
- analyzing the potential consequences of choices under various external conditions,
- building and comparing strategies under conditions of risk and multiple alternatives.

## Purpose and Objectives of Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is used:

- for forecasting the consequences of decisions in unstable conditions,
- for choosing a strategy from among alternative development paths,
- for justifying robust solutions that are effective across different outcomes,
- for assessing vulnerabilities and risks related to external factors.

The core objective is to construct a system of plausible, logically consistent scenarios that encompass significant potential developments, and to compare the consequences of chosen decisions across these scenarios.

## Relationship to Uncertainty and Risk

The scenario approach is an effective way to **account for and interpret uncertainty**:

- with **incomplete information** (e.g., lack of statistics, incomplete observability),
- under conditions of **risky choices** (e.g., stochastic factors, probabilities),
- in the presence of **multiple participants** or **conflicting interests** (e.g., game-theoretic scenarios).

It allows for considering not only the "best" and "worst" cases but also the entire spectrum of intermediate, possible, and plausible outcomes.

## External links

- <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_analysis" class="external text" rel="nofollow">Scenario analysis — Wikipedia</a>

## See also

- [Problem in the context of systems analysis](https://systems-analysis.info/eng/Problem_in_the_context_of_systems_analysis "Problem in the context of systems analysis")
- [Equifinality](https://systems-analysis.info/eng/Equifinality "Equifinality")
- [Levels of system representation](https://systems-analysis.info/eng/Levels_of_system_representation "Levels of system representation")
- [Cost–benefit analysis (CBA)](https://systems-analysis.info/eng/Cost%E2%80%93benefit_analysis_(CBA) "Cost–benefit analysis (CBA)")